Defining real economy Dr. Akmal said that it is the people's capacity of production, rather than a web of statistical projections like per capita income.

He noted that Pakistan is facing the severest recession of its fifty years' history. Our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has also reduced to 3.3 percent, so is the case with employment elasticity - rate of job opportunity.

"In terms of both GDP growth rate and income generation openings, economy has halted to the extent that poverty has increased in Pakistan most promptly than ever," he added: "If we fix 2500 calorie intakes  as indicator of nutrition, 17 percent of populace were deprived in 1987, but now the ratio has shot upto 30 percent. It implies that one-third of the population has not much to eat."
"This economic recession has spilled over to creating emotional problems for the ordinary household. For the first time in history, mass scale suicides have happened in Still, the most alarming aspect of this scale of poverty has been the end of people's hope and their trust on the system."

1986 was a positive year in economic terms, but even at that time, Dr. Akmal claimed, he had predicted a GDP decline in the preceding five years, after assessing strategic issues of then economic policy. In 1991, it actually decreased to prove the economist's apprehensions.

Decline in agricultural growth

Dr. Akmal focussed his presentation mainly upon the agriculture sector and told the participants that our agriculture growth rate has decreased with less than 2.5 percent yield per acre of major crops. It has declined in comparison with 7.5 percent of the sixties.
Frequency of bad harvest is also increasing. Last 17 years have witnessed 7 years of negative growth, while this frequency was 5 years in the first 20 years. Since, now, we do not have more cultivable lands or more water resources, and we have come to their full capacity, we would have to concentrate upon increasing yield per acre.

He said there are three areas, which have badly affected our agricultural growth:

1. Irrigation system: The system is in a state of disrepair. Dr. Akmal told that Faisalabad canal could run 7.50 thousand cusic feet water flow during its good past years, but now the efficiency of irrigation system has reduced to only 30 percent. That means a wastage of 70 percent of its original capacity. It calls for managerial intervention and institutional building of the system.
2. Soil depletion: Our lands are also being depleted of their organic material. Hence, fertility declines year after year. Organisation of the system is sought here, too.
3. Seed depletion: Average life for seeds amounts to 5 years  for wheat crop in But the same life cycle averages to 11 years through out other developing countries of the world.

Crisis of the state

Dr. Akmal said that the situation in the industrial sector has also reached to its alarming heights, where 7500 units are non-operative. All this has turned into a crisis at state, society and economy levels. The three have fused with each other distorting the very fibre of our social environment. It is not merely a financial or economic issue rather the real economy will have to be addressed.

This crisis has further resulted in abolishing the sanctity of contract. Rich are not giving back $ 220 million worth loans to the banks. Secondly, armed militant groups against the state within its own territory have emerged to seriously put people's security in jeopardy.

This environment defies any economic prescription to work.

Recommendations

Dr. Akmal made the following suggestions to resolve economic degeneration in Pakistan:

Two things are vital at the broader levels;

1)to establish the writ of the state, and to re-institute the sanctity of contract.

2)Enforcement of land reforms is the critical answer to concentration of land holding by a minority elite: Presently, 0.5 percent landed aristocracy owns 37 percent of the cultivable lands in

Land must be handed over to the tiller rather than to an absentee lord. The ownership of land will be an incentive to the farmer and they would work hard to the best of their abilities.

The proposed reforms would dramatically change the agriculture growth rate within fifteen years.

3) Managerial intervention and institution building at the tehsil level can be the basis on which the whole revival plan is built.
It is a question of better management, for example, that despite producing lesser quality of mangoes than us, India monopolises the whole market of Middle East. We lack transparent grading system to gauge standardised export to the international markets in this regard.

4) Reconstruction of irrigation system and seed rejuvenation at the gross root levels should be established..

5) Value added crops i.e. fruits, Soya beans, flowers, vegetables etc should be encouraged and international market be explored for their export. Potentially speaking, it will increase income to 80 thousand rupees per hectare.

6) Milk output should also be considered a value-added crop. It is, even, at present, the biggest crop because Pakistan produces milk worth 177 billion rupees as against 117 billion worth wheat produced in the country. Milk production can be doubled in one year if furnished with managerial intervention and institutional building including breeding, feeding and marketing facilities at the tehsil levels.

Dr. Akmal also told that he and his colleagues tested this prospective increase successfully in the areas of Khanewal and Sahiwal.
If the plan is initiated with due requirements, he told, we can export milk to the international market to the worth of 4 billion dollars within 2 years. Even now milk is surplus but we lack transportation facility at the tehsil level to sell it to the markets.

7) Marine fishing may yet be another priority area which, again, if provided with right infrastructure – ice-factory at the harbour, boats with satellite communication system and fibreglass packaging –  we can earn about two hundred million dollars annually. While, if we take into account the present figures  even Bangladesh produces fish worth 1.5 billion dollars compared with Pakistan's 5 million dollars worth fishing exports.

8) We will have to diversify our economy and go into new areas of investment i. e. computer related business. According to a projection India exports 20 million dollars worth softwares and computers.

Dr. Akmal said that though his recommendations indicated popular ways of doing things but with the present economic scenario in sight we should have to act fast in this direction.

Responding to comments about availability of funds to implement his suggestions, Dr. Akmal conceded that we do need finances for above-mentioned plans but primarily, he said, we require institutional arrangements in the villages not in Islamabad. We shall also have to establish institutions like dairy development board and endowment funds to finance proposed schemes. He informed that institutions like Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund have 150 billion dollars to finance development programmes.

He observed that when he talked of encouraging value added crops, he was not generalising the issue as a universal measure equally applicable to all localities of Instead, he said, we shall have to assess potential of certain of our ecological zones that are suitable to such crops in The soil surveys done in this regard show that we are blessed with such areas.
Dr. Akmal agreed with a participant's observation that the middle-men gain much in the agricultural sector to the frustration of farmers who are left with no incentives. He, however, added that the situation requires such institution building that gives more autonomy of work to the farmers. Land reforms are one of such instruments. Nevertheless, he admitted that the proposed reforms would, obviously, effect Southern Punjab and Sindh more than the central Punjab where land owning has become less concentrated. Here, when a participant advocated for cooperative farming he said that this type of farming is very difficult to handle as against land reforms.

About the question of ownership of genetic material he agreed that it's a very relevant issue. He said that our flora, fauna and seeds have been growing in this region for the last 200,000 years, but now multi-national companies (MNCs) are grabbing their rights.
Genetic extraction by these large companies is a new form of colonialism. We have to have stern stand on this intellectual property rights issue. Likewise ban is required on genetically modified seeds. The issue also implies that if we will not develop our own seed production, then a new kind of international exploitation is evident in future.

About the role of international agencies and plans i.e. International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank and Structural Adjustment Plan (SAP), he said that SAP is only there to integrate national with international economies and is basically a growth programme. In its original form it is a short term programme, but we have been implementing it for the last ten years. If our government does not come out with its own growth programme, the SAP is bound to bring results that it has been in these years he added.

He also noted  that during the last ten years the governments have not been cutting its own expenditure as envisaged in the SAP, rather they are cutting short development expenditures. For example, in the 80s the development expenditures amounted to seven percent of the total annual budget, which now has been decreased to 2.7 percent annually.

On loan defaulters’ issue, Dr. Akmal was of the view that national money lending institutions have gone bankrupt with 220 million  rupees worth loan defaults.

He also viewed that we should let the sick and obsolete industry face its death, so that new investments should seek new avenues of production.