President Farooq Leghari's recent two-day visit to China could be analysed in the backdrop of the arms reduction agreement between Russia and China and including three Central Asian Republics - Tajikistan, Karghistan and Kazakhistan - a week ago.

According to this agreement it is significant to note that the proposed 15 per cent reductions in the agreement do not include the navy or air force or long range missiles installations. Some observers have pointed out that since the 1950s, both China and Russia considered each other enemies. There have even been reports of cross border skirmishes, off and on, between the two countries. In light of this how did the two agree to a 15 percent arms reduction agreement? America wants the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation to expand to frontiers of Eastern Europe, whereas Russia doesn't want this. Moreover, Russia wants to sell its weapons to China, weapons that China can not get from western European sources. So the Russia-China agreement against America is the outcome of mutually beneficial interest for the two former enemies. Under the changed circumstances, there was no other way left for the fulfillment of their mutual needs. But it was done under the ideological pretext that they would guarantee the freedom and independence of smaller nations who are under the direct threat of American monopolistic hegemony.

Some commentators have expressed the opinion that a New Cold War has started after the end of the previous one, irrespective of the fact that the cold war was not the name of the hostility between two great powers - America and Russia - but rather an outcome of the two great powers' ideological tussle all over the world after the 1950s. Similarly even the idea of great powers doesn't fit into the definition of their being the countries of military or economic strength but rather as a harbinger of opposite world ideologies in the world. Notwithstanding, if there have emerged any other two or three great powers in the world, let us see what would be impact of these strategic changes on the neighbour countries of China and Russia; for instace India and Iran who seem to be busy redefining their role in the big power framework realistically. Before the advent of the 21st century the Moscow Agreement has attracted different reactions from various littoral countries. The Indian PM's allusion to Kashmir as the integral part of India, and the apprehensions expressed by Russian military officials about the advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the insurgency in China's Sinkiang Province may lead to a fallout of the Moscow Agreement. President Leghari's China visit is significant enough for it to be seen in the context of whether it is a sign that Pakistan agrees or disagrees with American policy in Asia.

Some observers have expressed a firm opinion that Pakistan can only safeguard its national security interests by following its previous policy option. Even if somebody considers that there is some change in the world scenario, it may not see the light of day, as the Russian Duma itself has refused to ratify the agreements. In addition, Russia, along with Iran, have opposed ratification of the Chemical Weapon Prohibition Convention whereas India has ratified it. And if Pakistan has not done so she many face trade sanctions from 164 countries. So it is the need of the hour to be very much cautious in adopting a new policy option. It must be kept in mind that Russia supplies enriched uranium to India and Iran - a matter of concern for us. Whether Pakistan is in a better position to gain or lose something out of this two-day visit of President Leghari to China so far, in terms of its strategic interests, is yet to be seen.

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